مقایسه مدل‏های غیرخطی جهت برآورد فراسنجه‏های رشد و برازش منحنی رشد بز رائینی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی تغذیه دام گروه علوم دامی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اراک

2 عضو هیئت علمی گروه علوم دامی دانشگاه لرستان

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی، گروه علوم دامی دانشگاه اراک.

چکیده

هدف از انجام این مطالعه برازش منحنی رشد و برآورد فراسنجه‏های رشد بز رائینی با استفاده از مدل‏های غیر خطی بود. به این منظور از رکوردهای مربوط به وزن بدن در سنین مختلف 6765 رأس بز نر و ماده رائینی که توسط مدل‏های غیرخطی برودی، ون‌برتالنفی، ورهالست، لجستیک و گمپرتز برازش شدندد، استفاده شد. مدل‏های غیر خطی مورد مطالعه توسط ضریب تبیین (R2)، میانگین مربعات خطا (MSE)، شاخص آکائیکی (AIC) و تعداد گردش مدل (Interation) با هم مقایسه گردیدند. در بین مدل‌های مورد مطالعه، مدل برودی با داشتن بیش­ترین ضریب تبیین و کم­ترین میانگین مربعات خطا، شاخص آکائیکی و تعداد گردش مدل به­عنوان مناسب‌­ترین مدل جهت برازش منحنی رشد هر دو جنس بز رائینی انتخاب گردید. دام‏های نر دارای وزن بلوغ (A) و ثابت رشد (B) بیش­تری نسبت به دام‌های ماده بودند، اما نرخ رشد (K) آن‌ها کم­تر از دام‏های ماده بود. بر اساس منحنی رشد برودی وزن زنده بز بالغ ماده از بز نر کم­تر بود زیرا وزن زنده به­طور معنی­داری تحت تأثیر اثر جنس قرار دارد. وزن در نقطه عطف برای جنس ماده بین 800/4 تا 890/7 کیلوگرم و برای جنس نر بین 860/5 تا 550/9 کیلوگرم محاسبه شد، که به­ترتیب حداقل و حداکثر وزن در نقطه عطف برای هر دو جنس توسط مدل ون‌برتالنفی و لجستیک برآورد شد. حداقل و حداکثر سن در نقطه عطف به­ترتیب توسط مدل ون‌برتالنفی و مدل ورهالست برآورد شد. در کل و بر اساس نتایح به­دست آمده مدل برودی قابلیت بیش­تری جهت برآزش منحنی رشد بز رائینی برای هر دو جنس نر و ماده به­منظور اهداف پرورشی و اصلاح نژادی دارد.

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